Population
Population change
Population change is occurring on a local, national, and global scale. This change is caused by population trends, including increased life expectancy and the movement of people, such as urban migration or refugees. This results in social and economic change and inequality. Population change can be investigated through contemporary case studies and the use of specific examples.
changing birth and death rates
increased life expectancy and ageing
changing population structures
consequences of changing population structures
economic and sociocultural factors influencing population trends
contemporary case studies of population trends in economically developed countries and economically developing countries.
Revision
With reference to a country you have studied describe the causes and challenges of high fertility.
Using examples from the case studies to describe and explain changes in life expectancy between LEDC and MEDC countries.
With reference to specific examples, describe the global trends in fertility and life expectancy over the past 20 years.
Explain the variation in total fertility rates between high-income and low-income countries. Refer to social and economic factors in your response.
Describe the trends in the total fertility rate for high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries.
1. Demography
Background briefing: Demography is destiny
Demography is the statistical study of human populations. Demographers use census data, surveys, and statistical models to analyse the size, movement, and structure of populations.
The timing and speed of a country’s age structure shifts depend on the timing and speed at which its fertility rate changes. To make projections about the population, researchers need to make assumptions about how fertility rates – the number of children the average woman has – and life expectancy will change.
For example the UN in its 2019 revision, projected that the world population would not peak by the end of the century: it expected numbers to reach 10.9 billion by 2100 and then continue to grow slowly. Its 2022 revision now expects that the world population will peak at around 10.4 billion people in the mid-2080s.
Activity 1. Demography in 3 parts
1. The demographic transition
For the first time there are more people over 65 than people under 5.
The demographic transition (DT) is the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a country or region develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialised economic system.
A population grows because there are more births than deaths or more people are moving in than moving out.
The difference between births and deaths is expressed as a percentage called the rate of natural increase.
To do: Questions
List two reasons for changes in each population stages 2, 3 & 5
List two reasons why the birth rate is lower than the death rate in stage 5
How could the population increase in stage 5 countries?
List three factors causing birth rates to decline in Stage 3.
List three factors causing the rapidly declining death rates in Stage 2?
What is one limit and one merit of this model
2. Population momentum.
A population with declining fertility will continues to grow if it still has a large number of young people in the childbearing years. For example, LEDC populations will continue to increase for a couple of decades even as population growth declines. This reflects the previous period of high fertility rates which results in a large number of young people.
To do: questions
Describe changes in population growth between 2000 and 2080 in LEDC and MEDC countries.
List 4 benefits of making population projections.
Extra:: Annotate a graph explaining population momentum.
(Everything you ever wanted to know about population momentum)
3. Dependency ratios
Dependency ratios are a measure of the age structure of a population. They measure the percentage of individuals who are economically dependent, youths (ages 0-14) and the elderly (ages 65+), on the support of working age group (ages 15-64). Changing dependency ratios reflect changing population age structures. As fertility levels decline, the dependency ratio initially falls because the proportion of youths decreases while the proportion of the population of working age increases. As fertility levels continue to decline, elderly dependency ratios eventually increase because the proportion of the population of working age starts to decline and the proportion of elderly persons continues to increase.
To do: questions
Explain dependency ratios with two examples. (Youth and elderly dependency ratio)
Extra: Why is the elderly dependency ratio a sign of long term economic decline?
2. Population pyramids
Modelling population structures - there is a pyramid for that.
The age and sex structure of a population refers to the number or proportion of males and females who are in each age category.
Age-sex structure tells us about a population's past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. It also provides information about the population's potential for future growth.
The greater the proportion of people in the younger-adult age groups, the greater the potential for more births and population growth.
To do: questions
Annotate an LEDC and an MEDC pyramid
Explain the primary causes of the fertility profile for both pyramids
Explain the primary causes of the life expectancy profile for both pyramids.
Background briefing: Life expectancy
Life expectancy: the number of years a child born in any given year can be expected to live.
Crude death rate (CDR): the number of deaths per 1000 people per annum.
Infant mortality rate: the number of infant deaths beneath the age of one year. Expressed as a count per 1000 live births
To do: Bonus exam questions
Explain the impact of a declining IMR on a countries life expectancy?
Explain the reasons for changes in life expectancy between 1969 and 2019 in LEDC and MEDC countries (4)
Account for the variation in life expectancy between high income and low income countries. Refer to social and economic factors in your response. (4)
2. Fertility
Activity 1. Fertility
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the most commonly used metric for measuring population. It measures the average number of children born per woman in a population. The global average fertility rate was below 2.3 children per woman in 2023,, half what it was in 1960 (4.7)
With increasing development/GDP comes lower fertility.
Fertility in LEDC's
LEDCs in stage 2 or 3 of the DMT are experiencing rapid population growth due to falling death rates, as a result of access to improving nutrition, health care and basic services, Birth rates remain high.
Fertility in MEDC's
Most MEDCs are in stage 4 of the DMT. The population is high, but not growing. They are experiencing slow rates of population growth. Countries such as Russia and Japan where the birth rate has fallen below the death rate are experiencing an ageing and declining population (stage 5). Most MEDCs have a very low rate of natural increase.
To do: Create a folio that compares an LEDC (high fertility rates / young population) with an MEDC (low fertility rates / ageing population).
Write two paragraphs to describe the causes of low / high fertility
Write two paragraphs to describe the advantages of low / high fertility
Write two paragraphs to describe the disadvantages of low / high fertility
Annotate a graph of the fertility rate for both countries.
Annotate a population pyramid for both countries:
Contrast the dependency ratios for the two countries.
Development indicators for both countries (see below for suggestions)
3. Natal strategies
Activity 2: Describe a pro natal strategy
A pro-natalist policy is a population policy which aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives
Exam question:
Outline three possible solutions to low fertility rates using country or region examples. (4)
Outline (AO1): Give a brief account or summary
Solutions to low birth rates
○ Increased immigration of economically active (Australia)
○ Increased retirement age
○ Tax benefits for more children
○ Government subsidies for infant, child care (Child benefits)
○ Free education
○ Increased parental leave and maternity benefits
Case study: Singapore's pro-natalist policy
Singapore is an MEDC in SE Asia with a population of 5.92 million people. The Singaporean government has specific policies to increase its population. Singapore has one of the lowest TFR’s (1.1) in the world. Over 35% of the Singapore population is made up of foreign nationals and in some sectors like industry, 80% of the workers are foreign. To overcome worker shortages, the Singapore government has encouraged immigration, but it is also trying to increase the population through raising birth rates. The government is doing this in a number of ways.
Increased maternity leave by 50% to 12 weeks and it will cover the cost of maternity leave (the cost to the parents employers) for the first four babies.
Increasing child benefits paid to families.
Sponsored dating organisations to encourage people to get married earlier and start having children.
Exam question:
Outline three possible solutions to low fertility rates using country or region examples. (4)
Outline (AO1): Give a brief account or summary
Extra: Why are most pro-natal policies failing to raise fertility rates?
Activity 3: Anti natal strategies
Careful what you wish for.
Family planning (Anti natal policy) is a notoriously politicised and divisive area in development.
Yet. LEDC governments are committed to "unprecedented political commitment and resources" to increase access to family planning information, services and supplies.
Population Campaigns - (Anti natal)
In 1952, India was the first country in the world to launch a mass media campaign to spread the concept of family planning in response to population growth. Most developing nations soon followed. While individual campaigns have had varying degrees of success, they have made a significant impact overall. Efforts to promote family planning through print media, radio announcements, and television ads carefully designed for national audiences persist in most LEDC's.
Solutions to high birth rates - anti natal policies
○ Increased emigration of economically active
○ Privatised education (remove cost from government)
○ Privatised healthcare (remove cost from government)
○ Removal of child benefits (including education and day care)
○ Increase family planning. Make contraception available and affordable.
○ Reduced IMR (people respond by having less babies)
○ Greater care of elderly dependents (less children needed to care for elderly)
○ Anti-natalist policy (China one child policy) e government enforces laws.
○ Ensure females are educated and emancipated! (Duh)
Case study: anti-natalist policy China
In 1979, China established a one-child policy that meant that each couple was allowed just one child. Benefits included increased access to education for all, plus childcare and healthcare offered to families that followed this rule.
Successes? - What worked
The total fertility rate fell from nearly 6 to about 1.2
Population growth rate fell from 2.61% in the late 1960's to be negative in 2024
Up to 250 million births have been prevented since 1979
China's population probably peaked in 2021
Failures - What didn't work
Female infanticide and there is now a sex imbalance in China (117:100). Men outnumber women by more than 60 million. In 2000, it was reported that 90 per cent of foetuses aborted in China were female.
Many children (female) have been abandoned for adoption.
An ageing population and an increased elderly dependency ratio
A shortage of workers in some areas.
So called 'little emperors' syndrome where only children are spoilt
The policy has been open to corruption. Many people have paid bribes to have extra children.
To do: Complete the following exam style questions.
Outline solutions to a countries high birth rate (3)
Evaluate (what worked and what didn’t work) the natal solution implemented by a country that you have studied. (4)
Outline (AO1): Give a brief account or summary
Evaluate (AO3): Make an appraisal by weighing up the strengths (what worked) and limitations (didn't work)
Extra: Would China’s fertility rate have declined without the one child policy?
